What it means: customers who stay, grow — strongly. The retention problem is not shrinkage of existing relationships; it is that most new revenue never becomes a relationship at all.
Recommendations: (1) Report NRR on the repeat book only, and track "one-off → repeat conversion" as its own KPI. (2) Contraction within the core is $49.8K/yr — half of it is Jones Manufacturing; a successful save recovers up to ~$55K/yr of run-rate (see actions).
What it means: the 26-point gap between blended NRR (125.8%) and blended GRR (62.0%) says growth depends heavily on a few accounts expanding while a long tail shrinks or vanishes. That is a fragile shape: if the top 3–4 expanders pause, the book contracts.
Recommendation: put quarterly business reviews on every account >$40K/yr (12 accounts). Even holding contraction to half its current rate is worth ~$40K/yr across core + near-core.
Named churned / at-risk revenue (see full ranked list below): Mercury Co. ($74K rev, silent 15 months, $80K overdue 439 days — effectively churned and uncollected), Global Information ($102K, silent 9 months, $110.6K overdue), Gotter Inc. ($64K, silent 9 months, $68K overdue), Haskell Associates ($41K, silent 12 months, $44K overdue), Karmabit ($64.6K lifetime, silent since Mar-26 — first gap in 8 quarters).
Recommendation: classify these five as formal churn-recovery cases. Combined uncollected exposure on churned-silent accounts alone: ~$306K.
| Transition | Base | New $ | New logos | Expansion | Contraction | Churned $ | Seq. NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4-24 | 143,958 | 19,839 | 8 | 76,863 | −18,783 | −592 | 139.9% |
| Q1-25 | 221,285 | 75,938 | 2 | 46,365 | −36,175 | −103 | 104.6% |
| Q2-25 | 307,310 | 2,027 | 1 | 55,461 | −39,001 | −74,217 | 81.2% |
| Q3-25 | 251,580 | 43,933 | 2 | 47,487 | −47,855 | −2,172 | 99.0% |
| Q4-25 | 292,973 | 168,276 | 3 | 38,104 | −44,788 | −43,964 | 82.7% |
| Q1-26 | 410,601 | 232,478 | 6 | 85,180 | −40,004 | −173,594 | 68.7% |
| Q2-26 | 514,661 | 372,933 | 21 | 77,602 | −103,475 | −242,086 | 47.9% |
What it means: acquisition is accelerating hard (21 new logos in Q2-26 alone vs 1–8 per quarter historically) and expansion is steady ($38–85K/qtr). But churned/contracted dollars are accelerating faster — the growth engine is pouring water into a leaking bucket.
Recommendation: Q2-26's 21-logo cohort ($303K first-purchase revenue) is the immediate test case: a structured 30/60/90-day second-purchase program (see actions) converting even 25% of them to core-like behavior adds ~$200K/yr.
Trend: up ~2× over two years for B2B, flat ~$500–670/qtr for B2C. Meaning: B2B deal sizes are growing; B2C is a stable convenience/retail base that will not move the P&L but costs little.
Recommendation: ARPU dispersion is extreme (core avg $164K lifetime vs one-off avg $44K). Set a minimum-engagement threshold for B2B sales effort and route sub-$5K B2B inquiries to a low-touch motion.
| Segment | n | Lifetime rev/acct | Lifetime margin/acct | Margin/qtr | CLV (margin, 3-yr cap) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B2B repeat core (≥3 active qtrs) | 11 | $164,121 | $72,968 | $9,121 | ≈ $85,600 |
| B2B one-off / project | 18 | $43,923 | $42,118* | — | ≈ $17,600* (single sale) |
| B2C repeat | ~65 | $4,400 | $2,150 | $270 | ≈ $3,000 |
What it means: a core B2B relationship is worth ~5× a one-off project on margin, before counting the one-off segment's collection risk. Segmentation, not averaging, should drive spend: blended CLV (~$30K) would materially misprice both motions.
Recommendation: treat conversion of a one-off into a repeat account as manufacturing ~$68K of incremental CLV per conversion ($85.6K − $17.6K). That number justifies a serious post-sale nurture budget.
What it means: if a new logo becomes a repeat account the economics are outstanding (5.8:1, 5-month payback). If it stays one-and-done, acquisition roughly breaks even at best. The entire return on the ~$474K/yr GTM budget hinges on second purchases and collections.
Recommendation: shift ~15–20% of S&M (~$70–95K) from top-of-funnel to post-sale conversion (onboarding, QBRs, reorder campaigns). At the $68K-per-conversion CLV delta above, 2 conversions/yr pays for it.
Recommendation: require item- or project-level costing on service invoices >$10K. This unlocks true margin-ranked account management — right now the "most profitable" list can't be trusted beyond the product core.
Benchmark: >4 excellent, 2–4 healthy, <1 shrinking. Meaning: the ratio has slid from ~5 to 1.3 — the business now needs ~$1.30 of new/expansion revenue to net $0.30 of growth. Efficiency of growth is deteriorating even while headline revenue rises. Recommendation: the fastest lever is the denominator: converting one-offs to repeat (removes their "churn") mechanically lifts the quick ratio above 3 without any new spend.
| # | Account | TTM revenue | Share | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jones Manufacturing | $153,376 | 8.3% | Q2-26 fell 84% QoQ — at risk |
| 2 | Design Excellence Ltd. | $135,158 | 7.4% | Growing, pays in ~2 days |
| 3 | Panaderia Co. | $123,239 | 6.7% | Growing |
| 4 | Pineapple Republic | $119,097 | 6.5% | +94% H1 YoY |
| 5 | Global Information | $101,799 | 5.5% | One-off, $110.6K overdue 241d |
| 6 | Davis Supplies | $95,486 | 5.2% | Softening since Q1-26 |
| 7 | Red Rivers Consulting | $94,370 | 5.1% | One-off, $102.9K overdue 132d |
| 8 | Magna Tech Limited | $89,343 | 4.9% | One-off, $97.9K just past due |
| 9 | Realpoint Inc. | $78,916 | 4.3% | Q2-26 −61% vs Q1 |
| 10 | Marshall Industries | $78,753 | 4.3% | +390% H1 YoY |
Top 5 = 34.4%, top 10 = 58.2% of TTM. Benchmark: top-10 <30% is comfortable; >50% is high dependency. Meaning: three of the top ten are simultaneously the largest overdue debtors, and #1 is in revenue decline — concentration risk and credit risk overlap. A bad quarter from just Jones + Davis + Realpoint (~18% of revenue) would erase the entire B2C book four times over. Recommendation: no single account >10%, and require deposits once an account's open A/R exceeds 25% of its trailing-year revenue.
Benchmark: ≥40 is the classic bar (SaaS-native; directional here since this is not a subscription business). At ~31, the company is respectable but below the bar — moderate growth with real profitability. Meaning: profitable enough to fund the retention/collections fixes internally; growth quality (see quick ratio) is the constraint, not cash. Assumption: journaled revenue is genuine trading revenue; if any is intercompany or adjustment, both growth and margin change.
Benchmark: >1.0 is efficient; >1.5 means under-investment in sales. At ~3.4 the GTM engine converts spend to top-line exceptionally well — but the metric assumes the added revenue recurs, which (per §3) it mostly doesn't. Adjusted to count only revenue that repeats, the effective magic number is roughly a third of the headline. Recommendation: don't add top-of-funnel spend; the efficient frontier here is retention of what's already being won.
| Billing shape | Documents | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Invoices on Net-30 terms | 284 | $2,838,327 | 100% of termed billing is Net-30 — no annual prepaid, no deposits required |
| Cash sales / POS (no terms) | 480 | $108,018 | B2C base — paid at sale, zero credit risk |
Meaning: there is no annual-prepaid or milestone-billing motion at all, which is why one large project = one large unsecured Net-30 receivable. Given observed payment behavior is bimodal (core accounts pay in 0–2 days; one-offs run 60–439 days late), Net-30-for-everyone is mispriced credit. Recommendation: tiered terms — Net-30 for accounts with 4+ paid invoices; 50% deposit / balance-on-delivery for first-time B2B orders >$25K. Applied to the last 12 months, this would have secured ~$400K of the currently overdue book.
| Indicator | Status | What the data shows |
|---|---|---|
| Product usage / engagement score | Not available | No usage/telemetry data in NetSuite. See data roadmap. |
| Login / activity trends | Not available | No portal-login tracking. |
| Purchase recency ("gone silent") | Computed | Best available proxy. 5 accounts with >$25K lifetime revenue have gone silent ≥4 months: Mercury (15 mo), Global Information (9), Gotter (9), Haskell (12), Karmabit (4). Karmabit is the actionable one — 8 straight active quarters, then silence. |
| Payment-behavior deterioration | Computed | Core accounts settle invoices in 0–2 days. Any account drifting past 30 days is behaviorally anomalous → treat >30-days-late as a churn alarm, not just a finance issue. |
| Support-ticket volume / velocity | Partial | 87 cases, nearly all created Mar–Jul 2026 (system newly in use — no velocity baseline). Standout: Susan Adams — 15 cases in 90 days (B2C, $7.1K lifetime; churn-certain without intervention). Watch: Greenwood Consulting (2 cases + $26.3K overdue), Global Information (2 cases + $110.6K overdue), Finch Computing (2 cases in first month as customer). |
| Time since last expansion | Computed | Core accounts expanding within last 2 qtrs: Pineapple, Marshall, Design Excellence, Panaderia, Recreational Outfitters, Hugo. Not expanded ≥3 qtrs: Karmabit, Entenmanns, Realpoint, Davis — matches the softening list. |
| Time-to-value (new accounts) | Not available | No onboarding/first-use milestone data; first-invoice-to-second-invoice gap is the proxy, and for all 2025+ logos it is ∞ (no second invoice). |
| Cohort | Logos | Q+0 | Q+1 | Q+2 | Q+3 | Q+4 | Q+5 | Q+6 | Q+7 |
|---|
Expansion timing: within the founding cohort, accounts that expand do so continuously (median gap between expansion quarters ≈ 2 quarters); there is no "dormant then grows" pattern — accounts either compound or decay. Practically: if an account hasn't grown in 3 quarters, it is statistically in the decay group (Karmabit, Entenmanns, Realpoint, Davis).
| # | Account | $ at stake | Type of exposure | Signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Information (id 263) | $110,579 | Overdue A/R (241 days) | gone silent 9 mo2 support casesone-off |
| 2 | Red Rivers Consulting (402) | $102,906 | Overdue A/R (132 days) | gone silent 6 moone-off |
| 3 | Magna Tech Limited (284) | $97,942 | Overdue A/R (11 days — early) | one-offact now, before it ages |
| 4 | Falcon Systems (259) | $86,007 | Overdue A/R (62 days) | gone silent 4 moone-off |
| 5 | Mercury Co. (292) | $80,079 | Overdue A/R (439 days) | silent 15 moprobable write-off — escalate/legal |
| 6 | Jones Manufacturing (276) | ~$130,000/yr run-rate | Revenue decline — #1 account | Q1-26 $65.9K → Q2-26 $10.6K (−84%)$0 open A/R (not a payment issue)no activity since 10 Jun |
| 7 | Gotter Inc. (265) | $68,119 | Overdue A/R (235 days) | gone silent 9 mo |
| 8 | Blockster Inc. (280) | $53,424 | Overdue A/R (60 days) | bought 3 consecutive months then stoppedrepeat potential if resolved |
| 9 | Haskell Associates (268) | $43,941 | Overdue A/R (307 days) | silent 12 mo |
| 10 | Davis Supplies (253) | ~$45,000/yr run-rate | Revenue softening | Q1-26 $29.4K → Q2-26 $15.4Kcore account since 2024 |
| 11 | Realpoint Inc. (400) | ~$40,000/yr run-rate | Revenue softening | Q2-26 −61% vs Q1-26core account |
| 12 | Karmabit (278) | ~$38,000/yr run-rate | Gone silent (churn in progress) | 8 active quarters, zero since Mar-26$0 owed — clean relationship to save |
| 13 | Entenmanns LLC (258) | ~$25,000/yr run-rate | Declining + irregular | −33% H1 YoY |
| 14 | Susan Adams (1219) | $3,500/yr | Support-driven churn risk | 15 cases in 90 dayssmall $, big signal |
| # | Account | TTM rev | H1-26 vs H1-25 | Est. 12-mo upside | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pineapple Republic (398) | $119,097 | +94% | +$50–70K | Accelerating 2 straight qtrs; pays on time; Q3 already $14.4K in 3 wks |
| 2 | Marshall Industries (287) | $78,753 | +390% | +$60–90K | Stepped from ~$6K/qtr to $67K in Q2-26 and $23K in 3 wks of Q3; A/R current |
| 3 | Recreational Outfitters (401) | $72,311 | +122% | +$40–60K | Fastest sustained compounding in the book; Q3 pacing ~$90K/yr |
| 4 | Panaderia Co. (396) | $123,239 | +34% | +$25–40K | Steady compounder, 45% GM, pays same-day |
| 5 | Design Excellence Ltd. (257) | $135,158 | +29% | +$25–40K | #2 account, 67 transactions, expanding since 2024 |
| 6 | Macgruber Incorporated (281) | $50,652 | new (Jun-26) | +$30–50K | 3 purchases in first month, $35K A/R all current — behaves like a future core account; onboard deliberately |
| Scenario | 12-mo revenue | vs TTM | Assumptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base — current dynamics hold | ≈ $2.07M | +13% | Core $956K grows at observed 124.6% NRR → $1.19M; B2C flat $138K; one-off layer re-acquired at current rate $743K; nothing collected faster |
| Bear — credit tightens, Jones churns | ≈ $1.62M | −12% | Deposit policy halves one-off volume (−$370K); Jones Manufacturing lost (−$130K); core others +124.6%; cash position improves materially despite lower revenue |
| Bull — retention fixes land | ≈ $2.45M | +33% | Base case + 25% of Q2-26 cohort converts to repeat (+$200K) + top-3 expansion plays hit midpoint (+$180K) |
| Missing metric | Specific data needed | How to capture in NetSuite |
|---|---|---|
| True ARR / MRR & contracted NRR | Recurring contracts, renewal dates, subscription lines | Use contracts/renewals fields or SuiteBilling; even a custom "contract" record with start/end/value works |
| Product usage & engagement score, login trends | Product telemetry / portal logins per customer | Integrate app analytics keyed to customer internal id (custom record or REST sync) |
| Time-to-value | Onboarding milestone dates per new account | Custom entity fields: kickoff date, first-value date |
| CAC by channel / segment; B2C CAC | Lead source & campaign cost attribution | Populate leadsource on customers; tie campaign records to S&M spend |
| True per-customer margin on services | COGS/project cost on service invoices (currently $0 on 20+ accounts) | Item costing or project costing on service items |
| Support-ticket velocity trend | ≥2 quarters of consistent case logging (cases only began Mar-2026) | Keep current process; baseline available ~Oct-2026 |
| Customer-level view of the $10.3M journal channel | Entity attribution on summary revenue journals | Post channel revenue via invoices/cash sales, or add customer segments on journal lines |
| NPS / CSAT | Survey data | External survey tool synced to customer record |